ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Linda Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021 1000 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021 Linda appears to be on an intensification trend this evening. The low-level center, after being partially exposed to the north earlier today, has recently become obscured by a large convective burst. There is also some evidence of banding on the northwest side of the center as well. The most recent 0000 UTC TAFB Dvorak estimate was T3.0/45 kt and given the improvement in structure on satellite imagery, the initial intensity was set to 45 kt for this advisory. Linda appears to be starting a turn to the west, with the latest motion now estimated at 285/8 kt. A more westward motion appears likely in the short term as a deep-layer ridge builds in to the north of the tropical storm. Afterwards, the guidance remains tightly clustered on a resumption of a west-northwest track between 36-72 hours. The latest NHC track forecast is quite similar to the previous one, except for a bit more westward motion in the short-term. The overall track forecast remains in excellent agreement with the track guidance consensus, and is roughly a blend between the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) and TVCE consensus aids. The moderate northerly shear that has been affecting Linda today does not appear to be hindering the storm from intensifying currently. In fact, the ongoing convective burst may help to better align the low and mid-level centers, which could allow for a faster rate of intensification in the short-term. For this reason, the intensity forecast for the next 48 hours has been increased, with Linda now forecast to peak as a 90 knot hurricane in 60 hours. Thereafter, while vertical wind shear and mid-level moisture are expected to remain favorable, sea-surface temperatures will begin to gradually decrease. Linda will also be traversing the same location that the large wind field of Kevin is currently over, and Kevin's large 34-kt wind radii may also lower the sea-surface temperatures along the path of Linda. The latest NHC intensity forecast is now around the mean of the guidance envelope through the first 48 hours, but still remains lower than the reliable HCCA guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 14.3N 103.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 14.3N 104.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 14.5N 106.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 15.1N 107.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 16.1N 108.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 13/1200Z 17.2N 110.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 14/0000Z 18.0N 112.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 15/0000Z 19.3N 116.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 16/0000Z 19.7N 120.8W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin/Stewart NNNN
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