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Tropical Storm Linda Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
400 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021
A recent ASCAT-B overpass revealed tropical-storm-force winds in
both the northern and southern semicircles of the cyclone, with
believable peak winds of 38 kt. Therefore, the depression has been
upgraded to a 40-kt tropical storm.
Moderate to strong northerly shear over Linda is keeping the bulk of
the deep convection confined to the southern portion of the
cyclone's circulation, resulting in a partially exposed low-level
center. This shear is forecast to persist over the storm for the
next day or so. Therefore, despite a moist, unstable environment
with ample oceanic heat content, only slow strengthening is expected
in the short term. If the shear decreases as anticipated, a
faster rate of intensification should occur for a couple of days.
The latest NHC intensity forecast is on the low end of the guidance
through 24-36 h due to the anticipated affects of the shear, and
then trends to near the various intensity consensus values
thereafter.
The estimated motion of Linda remains 295/9 kt. The cyclone is
expected to turn westward tonight as a ridge builds to its north,
and then resume a west-northwestward motion by later this week as it
begins to move along the southwestern periphery of this ridge. This
track is roughly parallel to, but well offshore of, the southwestern
coast of Mexico over the next couple of days. Thereafter, the
depression is forecast to move away from the coast of Mexico. The
latest NHC forecast track is little changed from the previous one,
and lies near the consensus track guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/2100Z 14.4N 102.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 14.8N 104.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 15.0N 105.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 15.3N 106.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 16.0N 108.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 13/0600Z 16.9N 110.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 17.8N 112.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 19.3N 116.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 15/1800Z 20.0N 120.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
$$
Forecaster Latto
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