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Tropical Storm Linda Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122021
400 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021
 
A recent ASCAT-B overpass revealed tropical-storm-force winds in 
both the northern and southern semicircles of the cyclone, with 
believable peak winds of 38 kt. Therefore, the depression has been 
upgraded to a 40-kt tropical storm. 

Moderate to strong northerly shear over Linda is keeping the bulk of 
the deep convection confined to the southern portion of the 
cyclone's circulation, resulting in a partially exposed low-level 
center. This shear is forecast to persist over the storm for the 
next day or so. Therefore, despite a moist, unstable environment 
with ample oceanic heat content, only slow strengthening is expected 
in the short term. If the shear decreases as anticipated, a 
faster rate of intensification should occur for a couple of days. 
The latest NHC intensity forecast is on the low end of the guidance 
through 24-36 h due to the anticipated affects of the shear, and 
then trends to near the various intensity consensus values 
thereafter. 
 
The estimated motion of Linda remains 295/9 kt. The cyclone is 
expected to turn westward tonight as a ridge builds to its north, 
and then resume a west-northwestward motion by later this week as it 
begins to move along the southwestern periphery of this ridge. This 
track is roughly parallel to, but well offshore of, the southwestern 
coast of Mexico over the next couple of days. Thereafter, the 
depression is forecast to move away from the coast of Mexico. The 
latest NHC forecast track is little changed from the previous one, 
and lies near the consensus track guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/2100Z 14.4N 102.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  11/0600Z 14.8N 104.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  11/1800Z 15.0N 105.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  12/0600Z 15.3N 106.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  12/1800Z 16.0N 108.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  13/0600Z 16.9N 110.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  13/1800Z 17.8N 112.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  14/1800Z 19.3N 116.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  15/1800Z 20.0N 120.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 
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