ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
400 AM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021
Over the past several hours, showers and thunderstorms have showed
increased signs of organization in association with an area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. An
ASCAT-B pass around 0330 UTC revealed that the low has developed a
well-defined center and is producing 25 to 30-kt winds, with some
higher wind vectors flagged as rain contaminated within the deep
convection occurring to the south and west of the center. The system
has become sufficiently organized to be classified as a tropical
depression, and its initial intensity is set at 30 kt for this
advisory.
The estimated motion of the depression is west-northwest, or
290/7 kt. The system is expected to generally move
west-northwestward to westward over the next several days, as it is
steered by a ridge to its north and northeast. This track is roughly
parallel to, but well offshore of, the southwestern coast of
Mexico. The track guidance is in reasonably good agreement, and the
official NHC forecast lies near the center of the guidance envelope.
The depression is located in a moist, unstable environment with
ample oceanic heat content to fuel strengthening during the next few
days. However, moderate to strong northerly vertical wind shear will
likely prevent rapid intensification of this system in the short
term. Nonetheless, the intensity guidance unanimously supports
strengthening, and this system is likely to become a tropical storm
later today. Continued strengthening is forecast through the rest of
the week and into the weekend, and the cyclone could reach hurricane
strength by Thursday. The official NHC intensity forecast generally
follows the IVCN consensus aid and shows the system's intensity
peaking on days 4 and 5, when the wind shear is forecast to
diminish while the cyclone remains over warm SSTs.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0900Z 13.0N 100.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 13.7N 102.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 14.3N 103.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 14.5N 105.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 14.7N 106.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 12/1800Z 15.3N 107.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 16.3N 109.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 18.2N 113.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 19.0N 117.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
NNNN