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Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122021
400 AM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021
 
Over the past several hours, showers and thunderstorms have showed 
increased signs of organization in association with an area of low 
pressure located a few hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. An 
ASCAT-B pass around 0330 UTC revealed that the low has developed a 
well-defined center and is producing 25 to 30-kt winds, with some 
higher wind vectors flagged as rain contaminated within the deep 
convection occurring to the south and west of the center. The system 
has become sufficiently organized to be classified as a tropical 
depression, and its initial intensity is set at 30 kt for this 
advisory.

The estimated motion of the depression is west-northwest, or 
290/7 kt. The system is expected to generally move 
west-northwestward to westward over the next several days, as it is 
steered by a ridge to its north and northeast. This track is roughly 
parallel to, but well offshore of, the southwestern coast of 
Mexico. The track guidance is in reasonably good agreement, and the 
official NHC forecast lies near the center of the guidance envelope. 
 
The depression is located in a moist, unstable environment with 
ample oceanic heat content to fuel strengthening during the next few 
days. However, moderate to strong northerly vertical wind shear will 
likely prevent rapid intensification of this system in the short 
term. Nonetheless, the intensity guidance unanimously supports 
strengthening, and this system is likely to become a tropical storm 
later today. Continued strengthening is forecast through the rest of 
the week and into the weekend, and the cyclone could reach hurricane 
strength by Thursday. The official NHC intensity forecast generally 
follows the IVCN consensus aid and shows the system's intensity 
peaking on days 4 and 5, when the wind shear is forecast to 
diminish while the cyclone remains over warm SSTs.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0900Z 13.0N 100.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 13.7N 102.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  11/0600Z 14.3N 103.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  11/1800Z 14.5N 105.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  12/0600Z 14.7N 106.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  12/1800Z 15.3N 107.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  13/0600Z 16.3N 109.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  14/0600Z 18.2N 113.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  15/0600Z 19.0N 117.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
 
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