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Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
200 AM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021
Hilda continues to weaken tonight. For a 12 h period, the low-level
circulation was mostly devoid of deep convection, though recently a
few convective cells are redeveloping south of the estimated center.
Unfortunately, there has not been any recent scatterometer data to
help determine the storm's intensity. The current initial intensity
of Hilda is set to a possibly generous 40 kt for this advisory,
blending the final-T numbers and current intensity estimates from
TAFB and SAB, in addition to the most recent UW-CIMSS SATCON
intensity estimate. Further weakening is forecast, as Hilda is now
moving over sea-surface temperatures below 25 C, though some
residual mid-level moisture may allow for sporadic convective bursts
to occur for the next 24-36 hours. By 48 hours, the ECMWF, GFS, and
HWRF models all agree Hilda will lose any remaining organized
convection and become a remnant low, with this low opening up to a
trough this weekend, well east-northeast of the Hawaiian
Islands.
Now that Hilda is becoming an increasingly shallow cyclone, the
storm is beginning to bend slightly to the left, now moving to the
west-northwest at 300/8 kt. Low- to mid-level ridging to the north
and east of Hilda is expected to build in further over the next
several days, and should allow the cyclone to turn a bit more
westward at a slightly faster motion by the end of the forecast
period. The latest NHC track forecast is very close to the
previous one, and remains near the multi-model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0900Z 18.9N 126.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 19.6N 127.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 20.4N 129.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 21.3N 131.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 22.1N 133.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/1800Z 22.6N 136.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven
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