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Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082021
200 AM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021

Hilda continues to weaken tonight. For a 12 h period, the low-level 
circulation was mostly devoid of deep convection, though recently a 
few convective cells are redeveloping south of the estimated center. 
Unfortunately, there has not been any recent scatterometer data to 
help determine the storm's intensity. The current initial intensity 
of Hilda is set to a possibly generous 40 kt for this advisory, 
blending the final-T numbers and current intensity estimates from 
TAFB and SAB, in addition to the most recent UW-CIMSS SATCON 
intensity estimate. Further weakening is forecast, as Hilda is now 
moving over sea-surface temperatures below 25 C, though some 
residual mid-level moisture may allow for sporadic convective bursts 
to occur for the next 24-36 hours. By 48 hours, the ECMWF, GFS, and 
HWRF models all agree Hilda will lose any remaining organized 
convection and become a remnant low, with this low opening up to a 
trough this weekend, well east-northeast of the Hawaiian 
Islands.    

Now that Hilda is becoming an increasingly shallow cyclone, the 
storm is beginning to bend slightly to the left, now moving to the 
west-northwest at 300/8 kt. Low- to mid-level ridging to the north 
and east of Hilda is expected to build in further over the next 
several days, and should allow the cyclone to turn a bit more 
westward at a slightly faster motion by the end of the forecast 
period. The latest NHC track forecast is very close to the 
previous one, and remains near the multi-model consensus.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0900Z 18.9N 126.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 19.6N 127.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 20.4N 129.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 21.3N 131.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 22.1N 133.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  06/1800Z 22.6N 136.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven
 
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