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Hurricane Hilda Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
800 PM PDT Mon Aug 02 2021
Moderate northeasterly wind shear continues to take a toll on Hilda
this evening. The upper-level outflow on the northern and eastern
sides of the circulation has a sharp edge in satellite imagery.
Recent SSMIS microwave data show the structure of Hilda has changed
little since earlier today, with a weakness in the upshear portion
of the eyewall and a slight displacement of the low- and mid-level
centers. The various objective intensity estimates and subjective
Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB support holding the initial
intensity at 65 kt for this advisory.
Hilda is moving northwestward, or 315/6 kt, under the influence of a
subtropical ridge to its northeast. This general motion is expected
to continue through midweek, and the track guidance remains tightly
clustered during this period. As Hilda continues weakening and the
ridge builds westward, Hilda is forecast to move west-northwestward
and then westward within the low-level flow through the rest of the
period. However, a complicating factor is the potential for some
interaction with the remnants of TD Nine-E, which now have a high
chance of redevelopment during the next couple of days. The official
NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly poleward once again at
day 3 and beyond, bringing it closer to the reliable consensus aids
TVCE and HCCA and accounting for the aforementioned possibility of
some interaction between the two systems.
Moderate northeasterly shear will persist for the next day or so,
and afterwards the cooler sea-surface temperatures along Hilda's
forecast track will offset any reduction in shear over the system.
Therefore, weakening is expected during the next several days. The
official NHC intensity forecast lies slightly above the multi-model
consensus aids in the near-term, but then closely follows IVCN and
HCCA once Hilda reaches the cooler waters. The system is forecast to
degenerate into a remnant low by 96 h, but this transition could
occur soon after 72 h based on some of the latest GFS and ECMWF
simulated satellite imagery.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0300Z 16.4N 123.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 17.1N 123.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 18.0N 124.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 18.9N 125.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 19.8N 127.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 05/1200Z 20.8N 128.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 21.6N 130.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 22.5N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/0000Z 22.6N 139.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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