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Hurricane Hilda Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082021
800 PM PDT Mon Aug 02 2021
 
Moderate northeasterly wind shear continues to take a toll on Hilda 
this evening. The upper-level outflow on the northern and eastern 
sides of the circulation has a sharp edge in satellite imagery. 
Recent SSMIS microwave data show the structure of Hilda has changed 
little since earlier today, with a weakness in the upshear portion 
of the eyewall and a slight displacement of the low- and mid-level 
centers. The various objective intensity estimates and subjective 
Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB support holding the initial 
intensity at 65 kt for this advisory.

Hilda is moving northwestward, or 315/6 kt, under the influence of a 
subtropical ridge to its northeast. This general motion is expected 
to continue through midweek, and the track guidance remains tightly 
clustered during this period. As Hilda continues weakening and the 
ridge builds westward, Hilda is forecast to move west-northwestward 
and then westward within the low-level flow through the rest of the 
period. However, a complicating factor is the potential for some 
interaction with the remnants of TD Nine-E, which now have a high 
chance of redevelopment during the next couple of days. The official 
NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly poleward once again at 
day 3 and beyond, bringing it closer to the reliable consensus aids 
TVCE and HCCA and accounting for the aforementioned possibility of 
some interaction between the two systems. 

Moderate northeasterly shear will persist for the next day or so, 
and afterwards the cooler sea-surface temperatures along Hilda's 
forecast track will offset any reduction in shear over the system.  
Therefore, weakening is expected during the next several days. The 
official NHC intensity forecast lies slightly above the multi-model 
consensus aids in the near-term, but then closely follows IVCN and 
HCCA once Hilda reaches the cooler waters. The system is forecast to 
degenerate into a remnant low by 96 h, but this transition could 
occur soon after 72 h based on some of the latest GFS and ECMWF 
simulated satellite imagery.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0300Z 16.4N 123.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 17.1N 123.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 18.0N 124.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 18.9N 125.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  05/0000Z 19.8N 127.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  05/1200Z 20.8N 128.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  06/0000Z 21.6N 130.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  07/0000Z 22.5N 135.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/0000Z 22.6N 139.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
 
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