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Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
300 AM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021
Enrique has lost most of its associated deep convection, likely due
to the entrainment of drier and more stable air. Upwelling of
cooler waters beneath the slow-moving circulation may also be a
contributing factor. Based on data from a couple of earlier
scatterometer overpasses, the intensity was reduced to 45 kt.
Given the dearth of convection, this may be a generous estimate for
the current intensity of the storm. Since the thermodynamic
environment is not expected to become any more conducive, weakening
is forecast. The official intensity forecast is similar to the
previous one and close to the model consensus. It should be noted
that Enrique could weaken more rapidly than expected if significant
deep convection does not redevelop within the circulation soon.
Therefore, the intensity forecast for this system is highly
uncertain.
The center has become very difficult to locate and the fixes
have considerable spread, making the initial position and motion
estimates quite uncertain. Based heavily on continuity, the
initial motion estimate is a continued northwestward track, or 325/5
kt. The flow to the west of a mid-level ridge over northwestern
Mexico should steer Enrique generally northwestward for the next
couple of days, taking the system near or over the southern Baja
California Peninsula.
Given the uncertainty as to whether Enrique will maintain tropical
storm intensity by the time it moves near or over southern Baja, it
is decided to continue with a Tropical Storm Watch for that area,
and not upgrade it to a warning at this time.
Key Messages:
1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
across a portion of western Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula
during the next couple days. The additional rainfall over the
mainland of Mexico will continue to pose a threat of flash flooding
and mudslides.
2. Tropical-storm-force winds are possible over portions of the
southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula beginning tonight,
and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for that area.
3. Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast
of Mexico during the next day or two, and will spread northward
along portions of the coast of southern Baja California Peninsula
and Gulf of California during the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0900Z 21.6N 107.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 22.5N 108.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 23.5N 109.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 24.5N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 25.2N 111.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 01/1800Z 25.5N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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