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Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052021
300 AM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021

Enrique has lost most of its associated deep convection, likely due 
to the entrainment of drier and more stable air.  Upwelling of 
cooler waters beneath the slow-moving circulation may also be a 
contributing factor.  Based on data from a couple of earlier 
scatterometer overpasses,  the intensity was reduced to 45 kt.  
Given the dearth of convection, this may be a generous estimate for 
the current intensity of the storm.  Since the thermodynamic 
environment is not expected to become any more conducive, weakening 
is forecast.  The official intensity forecast is similar to the 
previous one and close to the model consensus.  It should be noted 
that Enrique could weaken more rapidly than expected if significant 
deep convection does not redevelop within the circulation soon.  
Therefore, the intensity forecast for this system is highly 
uncertain.

The center has become very difficult to locate and the fixes 
have considerable spread, making the initial position and motion 
estimates quite uncertain.  Based heavily on continuity, the 
initial motion estimate is a continued northwestward track, or 325/5 
kt.  The flow to the west of a mid-level ridge over northwestern 
Mexico should steer Enrique generally northwestward for the next 
couple of days, taking the system near or over the southern Baja 
California Peninsula.

Given the uncertainty as to whether Enrique will maintain tropical 
storm intensity by the time it moves near or over southern Baja, it 
is decided to continue with a Tropical Storm Watch for that area, 
and not upgrade it to a warning at this time.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains 
across a portion of western Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula  
during the next couple days.  The additional rainfall over the 
mainland of Mexico will continue to pose a threat of flash flooding 
and mudslides.
 
2. Tropical-storm-force winds are possible over portions of the
southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula beginning tonight,
and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for that area.
 
3. Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast
of Mexico during the next day or two, and will spread northward
along portions of the coast of southern Baja California Peninsula
and Gulf of California during the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0900Z 21.6N 107.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 22.5N 108.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 23.5N 109.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  30/1800Z 24.5N 110.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  01/0600Z 25.2N 111.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 60H  01/1800Z 25.5N 112.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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