ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Storm Carlos Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021
200 AM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021
The satellite presentation of Carlos has continued to erode early
this morning, with only three remnant convective cells noted
rotating around the center. As a result, subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates have fallen sharply. Thus, the
initial intensity has also been lowered to 35 kt, which could be
generous.
The initial motion estimate is 255/06 kt. Carlos is forecast by the
global and regional models to be steered west-southwestward to
westward throughout the 5-day period by a strong low- to mid-level
subtropical ridge situated to its north and northwest. The latest
model guidance has come into much better agreement on this track
scenario, especially compared to this time yesterday, and the new
NHC track forecast follows suit and lies close to a blend of the
HCCA and TVCE consensus track models.
Although sea-surface temperatures are expected to remain warm enough
to support a tropical cyclone, the continued ingestion of cooler,
drier, and more stable air that now completely surrounds Carlos is
forecast to continue to erode the central deep convection, with the
cyclone weakening a tropical depression later today. By 36-48h,
southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 20 kt is expected to
hasten the weakening process, resulting in Carlos degenerating into
a remnant low. Although there will likely be periodic short-lived
bursts of convection, especially at night, the general trend should
be gradual weakening throughout the 120-h forecast period, perhaps
even faster than indicated by the official intensity forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0900Z 11.4N 127.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 11.2N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 10.8N 129.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 10.4N 130.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 10.2N 132.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 16/1800Z 10.2N 133.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0600Z 10.5N 134.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/0600Z 11.0N 136.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/0600Z 11.5N 137.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Stewart
NNNN