ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Carlos Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032021
200 AM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021
 
The satellite presentation of Carlos has continued to erode early 
this morning, with only three remnant convective cells noted 
rotating around the center. As a result, subjective and objective 
satellite intensity estimates have fallen sharply. Thus, the 
initial intensity has also been lowered to 35 kt, which could be 
generous.
 
The initial motion estimate is 255/06 kt. Carlos is forecast by the 
global and regional models to be steered west-southwestward to 
westward throughout the 5-day period by a strong low- to mid-level 
subtropical ridge situated to its north and northwest. The latest 
model guidance has come into much better agreement on this track 
scenario, especially compared to this time yesterday, and the new 
NHC track forecast follows suit and lies close to a blend of the 
HCCA and TVCE consensus track models.
 
Although sea-surface temperatures are expected to remain warm enough 
to support a tropical cyclone, the continued ingestion of cooler, 
drier, and more stable air that now completely surrounds Carlos is 
forecast to continue to erode the central deep convection, with the 
cyclone weakening a tropical depression later today. By 36-48h, 
southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 20 kt is expected to 
hasten the weakening process, resulting in Carlos degenerating into 
a remnant low. Although there will likely be periodic short-lived 
bursts of convection, especially at night, the general trend should 
be gradual weakening throughout the 120-h forecast period, perhaps 
even faster than indicated by the official intensity forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0900Z 11.4N 127.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 11.2N 128.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 10.8N 129.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  15/1800Z 10.4N 130.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  16/0600Z 10.2N 132.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  16/1800Z 10.2N 133.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  17/0600Z 10.5N 134.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  18/0600Z 11.0N 136.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/0600Z 11.5N 137.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart
 
NNNN