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Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
200 AM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020
The satellite presentation of Marie has continued to degrade
overnight with a less symmetric cloud pattern, no signs of an eye,
and perhaps some indication that the mid-level circulation is
beginning to decouple from the low-level center. The initial
intensity is reduced to 90 kt, consistent with the latest estimates
from TAFB/SAB. Further rapid weakening is expected today as shear
is forecast to increase while the hurricane moves over cooler
waters. Marie should lose its deep convection around day 4 due to
more cold water and higher shear, so remnant low status is forecast
then. The new intensity forecast is similar to the last one, near
or below the model consensus.
The hurricane is still headed northwestward near 7 kt. The eastern
Pacific subtropical ridge to the north should keep Marie moving
generally west-northwestward or northwestward at about the same
forward speed during the next few days. Near the end of the forecast
period, Marie could turn more poleward due to an approaching
mid-latitude trough. The model guidance is fairly divergent at long
range, however, with some of the guidance showing the tropical
cyclone being too shallow to feel the trough and continuing a
northwest track, with others recurving ahead of the trough. The new
forecast shows a north-northwest turn as a compromise, just a little
west of the previous NHC prediction.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0900Z 20.1N 128.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 20.5N 129.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 21.1N 130.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 21.7N 131.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 22.4N 133.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 06/1800Z 23.2N 134.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 24.0N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 24.9N 136.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/0600Z 26.0N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Blake
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