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Hurricane Marie Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182020
200 AM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020

The satellite presentation of Marie has continued to degrade 
overnight with a less symmetric cloud pattern, no signs of an eye, 
and perhaps some indication that the mid-level circulation is 
beginning to decouple from the low-level center.  The initial 
intensity is reduced to 90 kt, consistent with the latest estimates 
from TAFB/SAB.  Further rapid weakening is expected today as shear 
is forecast to increase while the hurricane moves over cooler 
waters.  Marie should lose its deep convection around day 4 due to 
more cold water and higher shear, so remnant low status is forecast 
then.  The new intensity forecast is similar to the last one, near 
or below the model consensus.
 
The hurricane is still headed northwestward near 7 kt. The eastern 
Pacific subtropical ridge to the north should keep Marie moving 
generally west-northwestward or northwestward at about the same 
forward speed during the next few days. Near the end of the forecast 
period, Marie could turn more poleward due to an approaching 
mid-latitude trough.  The model guidance is fairly divergent at long 
range, however, with some of the guidance showing the tropical 
cyclone being too shallow to feel the trough and continuing a 
northwest track, with others recurving ahead of the trough.  The new 
forecast shows a north-northwest turn as a compromise, just a little 
west of the previous NHC prediction.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0900Z 20.1N 128.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 20.5N 129.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 21.1N 130.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 21.7N 131.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 22.4N 133.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  06/1800Z 23.2N 134.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  07/0600Z 24.0N 135.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  08/0600Z 24.9N 136.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  09/0600Z 26.0N 137.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
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