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Tropical Storm Julio Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152020
300 PM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020
Julio remains a compact tropical storm that is producing a small
area of deep convection near and to the west of the center. A
recent ASCAT-A overpass showed maximum winds around 30 kt, which was
lower than in previous passes. Based on that data and the latest
Dvorak classifications, the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt.
The ASCAT data also suggest that the circulation of Julio is not as
well defined on the south side as it was earlier.
As mentioned in the previous discussion, Julio's future is
somewhat unclear. The ECMWF and UKMET models show Julio becoming
absorbed by a larger low just to its southwest in a couple of days.
Conversely, the GFS, HWRF, and HMON models show Julio being the
dominant feature, with the latter two aids even showing
strengthening. Since confidence is low on which scenario will play
out, it seems best to hold continuity for now, which ends up leaning
closer to the ECMWF/UKMET solutions. The NHC intensity forecast is
a little lower than the previous one given the lower initial
intensity.
The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at about 17 kt.
Julio should continue to move westward to west-northwestward at a
fairly quick pace for another 12-24 hours. However, after that time,
a notable slow down should occur as the ridge over the eastern
Pacific breaks down and leaves the cyclone in weak steering
currents. The new NHC track forecast is adjusted to the south of
the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest
models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/2100Z 19.3N 110.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 19.6N 112.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 19.7N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 19.6N 115.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 19.4N 116.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 19.2N 116.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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