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Tropical Storm Julio Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152020
300 PM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020
 
Julio remains a compact tropical storm that is producing a small 
area of deep convection near and to the west of the center.  A 
recent ASCAT-A overpass showed maximum winds around 30 kt, which was 
lower than in previous passes.  Based on that data and the latest 
Dvorak classifications, the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt.  
The ASCAT data also suggest that the circulation of Julio is not as 
well defined on the south side as it was earlier.

As mentioned in the previous discussion, Julio's future is 
somewhat unclear. The ECMWF and UKMET models show Julio becoming 
absorbed by a larger low just to its southwest in a couple of days. 
Conversely, the GFS, HWRF, and HMON models show Julio being the 
dominant feature, with the latter two aids even showing 
strengthening.  Since confidence is low on which scenario will play 
out, it seems best to hold continuity for now, which ends up leaning 
closer to the ECMWF/UKMET solutions.  The NHC intensity forecast is 
a little lower than the previous one given the lower initial 
intensity. 
 
The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at about 17 kt.  
Julio should continue to move westward to west-northwestward at a 
fairly quick pace for another 12-24 hours. However, after that time, 
a notable slow down should occur as the ridge over the eastern 
Pacific breaks down and leaves the cyclone in weak steering 
currents.  The new NHC track forecast is adjusted to the south of 
the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest 
models.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/2100Z 19.3N 110.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 19.6N 112.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 19.7N 114.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 19.6N 115.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 19.4N 116.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  09/0600Z 19.2N 116.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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