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Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142020
200 PM PDT Fri Aug 28 2020
 
First light visible imagery shows that Iselle's center of
circulation has once again reappeared to the northeast of the
deep convective mass.  Last night's briefly diminished shear
interlude probably resulted in Iselle's peak intensity.  For this
advisory, the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt which is based
on a blend of the Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, 
a METOP-B ASCAT overpass containing 40-45 kt winds and a SATCON 
analysis of 42 kt.
 
The northeasterly shear is forecast to persist through the 24 hour
period and then decrease and veer from the southeast.  At that
time, however, Iselle will be traversing sub 25C sea surface
temperatures and will be moving into a more dry and stable
surrounding environment.  As a result, Iselle should weaken to a
tropical depression Saturday night and degenerate to a remnant
low on Sunday.
 
The initial motion is estimated to be north-northeastward, or, 
020/6 kt.  A northward direction should commence Saturday 
morning, then a turn north-northwestward is forecast Sunday morning. 
As Iselle continues to weaken and degenerates to a remnant low, a 
turn toward the northwest, well offshore of the southern coast of 
the Baja California peninsula, is expected to occur Sunday 
late night.  The NHC forecast is an update of the previous advisory 
and is close to the GFEX (FV3/ECMWF mean) and the NOAA HCCA 
consensus model.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/2100Z 18.8N 115.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 19.6N 114.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 21.0N 114.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 22.6N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 23.7N 115.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  31/0600Z 24.4N 116.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  31/1800Z 25.1N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
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