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Tropical Storm GENEVIEVE

Tropical Storm Genevieve Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122020
400 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020
Visible satellite imagery shows that the tropical cyclone is quickly 
becoming better organized.  Several bands of deep convection are 
located around the center, and there is a concentration of 
convection near the estimated center, suggesting that a CDO may 
already be starting to form.  The various satellite intensity 
estimates were around 35 kt at 18z, and an earlier ASCAT overpass 
revealed a couple of wind vectors slightly higher than that value. 
Based on the continued increase in organization, the advisory 
intensity has been set at 40 kt.  Genevieve becomes the seventh 
named storm in the eastern Pacific basin this hurricane season.

Although there are a few dry slots noted within the bands of deep 
convection, environmental conditions of warm water, low shear, and 
plenty of low- to mid-level moisture along the forecast track 
suggest that Genevieve will intensify quite rapidly over the next 
couple of days.  The statistical and dynamical guidance, along with 
the global models, deepen the cyclone rapidly over the next 2-3 
days.  The latest SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index shows about a 
65-percent chance of 65-kt increase in wind speed over the next 72 
hours, and DTOPS gives a 90-percent chance of a similar increase in 
intensity over that same time period.  All of this leads to an 
unusually high level of confidence that Genevieve will rapidly 
strengthen, likely becoming a hurricane in 24 hours and a major 
hurricane within 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to 
both the SHIPS and HFIP corrected consensus models.  After 72 h, 
Genevieve is expected to reach cooler waters, and a fairly quick 
rate of weakening is forecast after that time. 

Recent satellite fixes suggest that the center is located slightly 
north of the previous track, but Genevieve's motion remains 
west-northwestward at a brisk 17 kt. The track forecast philosophy 
is unchanged from before.  Genevieve should move west-northwestward 
to the south of a deep layer ridge over the western United States 
during the next couple of days.  After that time, the cyclone will 
be approaching the western portion of the ridge and a slightly 
slower northwestward motion is expected.  The new NHC track forecast 
is slightly north of the previous advisory through 24 hours due to 
the more northward initial position, otherwise the updated forecast 
is similar to the previous advisory, and is close to the HFIP 
corrected consensus model.
Although the tropical cyclone is forecast to remain well offshore
the southern coast of Mexico, large swells generated by the
strengthening system are expected to begin affecting portions of
the coast of southern Mexico over the next day or so.
INIT  16/2100Z 12.2N  99.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 12.9N 101.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 14.3N 104.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  18/0600Z 15.7N 107.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  18/1800Z 17.2N 109.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  19/0600Z 18.6N 110.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  19/1800Z 20.2N 112.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  20/1800Z 22.5N 115.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  21/1800Z 24.7N 119.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
Forecaster Brown