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Hurricane Elida Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020
200 AM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020
Satellite imagery over the past several hours shows that the deep
convection associated with Elida has been shrinking in coverage,
while earlier microwave data revealed that the low-level center is
on the southern edge of the convection. All of the available Dvorak
data-T numbers have been on the decline tonight, and there remains a
large spread in the Dvorak CI numbers, ranging from about 50-75 kt.
The initial advisory intensity has been set to 65 kt, which is
essentially a blend of the TAFB and SAB CI numbers along with the
latest UW/CIMSS SATCON estimate.
Elida is now moving over water temperatures below 24C, and the
cyclone is heading towards even cooler waters. In addition, the
cyclone's surrounding environment is expected to become increasingly
drier and more stable over the next 24 h. These factors should
cause Elida to rapidly weaken over the next day or so, with the
cyclone expected to weaken to a tropical storm later today. After 24
h, vertical wind shear is forecast to increase, which should help
to dissipate any remaining deep convection associated with Elida
around that time. The latest NHC intensity forecast is very close to
the various consensus aids through the period of rapid weakening,
and is similar to the previous forecast.
Elida is now moving west-northwestward at about 11 kt. This general
motion is expected to continue through today, as the cyclone moves
around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge centered over
the southwestern United States. By tonight, the western portion of
the ridge is forecast to weaken, which should allow Elida to turn
northwestward with some additional slowing of its forward speed.
This new motion should continue until the system becomes a remnant
low. The latest NHC forecast is little changed from the previous and
is near the well-clustered track guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0900Z 23.0N 117.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 23.7N 119.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 24.8N 120.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 25.9N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/0600Z 27.2N 122.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 14/1800Z 28.5N 123.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW