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Hurricane ELIDA (Text)


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Hurricane Elida Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092020
200 AM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020
 
Satellite imagery over the past several hours shows that the deep 
convection associated with Elida has been shrinking in coverage, 
while earlier microwave data revealed that the low-level center is 
on the southern edge of the convection. All of the available Dvorak 
data-T numbers have been on the decline tonight, and there remains a 
large spread in the Dvorak CI numbers, ranging from about 50-75 kt. 
The initial advisory intensity has been set to 65 kt, which is 
essentially a blend of the TAFB and SAB CI numbers along with the 
latest UW/CIMSS SATCON estimate.
 
Elida is now moving over water temperatures below 24C, and the 
cyclone is heading towards even cooler waters. In addition, the 
cyclone's surrounding environment is expected to become increasingly 
drier and more stable over the next 24 h. These factors should 
cause Elida to rapidly weaken over the next day or so, with the 
cyclone expected to weaken to a tropical storm later today. After 24 
h, vertical wind shear is forecast to increase, which should help 
to dissipate any remaining deep convection associated with Elida 
around that time. The latest NHC intensity forecast is very close to 
the various consensus aids through the period of rapid weakening, 
and is similar to the previous forecast.
 
Elida is now moving west-northwestward at about 11 kt.  This general 
motion is expected to continue through today, as the cyclone moves 
around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge centered over 
the southwestern United States.  By tonight, the western portion of 
the ridge is forecast to weaken, which should allow Elida to turn 
northwestward with some additional slowing of its forward speed. 
This new motion should continue until the system becomes a remnant 
low. The latest NHC forecast is little changed from the previous and 
is near the well-clustered track guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/0900Z 23.0N 117.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  12/1800Z 23.7N 119.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  13/0600Z 24.8N 120.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  13/1800Z 25.9N 121.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  14/0600Z 27.2N 122.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  14/1800Z 28.5N 123.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  15/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 21-Oct-2020 12:11:56 UTC