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Hurricane Elida Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020
900 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020
The last few visible images before sunset showed that while Elida
had developed a faint eye, recent microwave data suggest the
eyewall is open on the north and northwest sides. Nonetheless, the
system is still on a strengthening trend, and the latest wind speed
is set to 75 kt, close to the latest TAFB/SAB intensity estimates.
Elida continues moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. A mid-level
ridge located over northern Mexico and the southwestern U.S. should
steer the hurricane west-northwestward at about the same forward
speed for another couple of days. The biggest change to report is
that most of the guidance are showing this motion continuing
(instead of a westward turn) or even a more poleward trend in a few
days due to a mid-latitude trough. It is uncertain how vertically
deep Elida will be at that point, but there is even a low-level
weakness in the model fields, suggesting that a shallower Elida
would still feel that trough. Consequentially, the new NHC
official forecast is shifted roughly 90 n mi to the north by day 4,
with continuity preventing a larger change. The forecast is still
on the southern end of the guidance envelope, so further northward
adjustments could still be required overnight.
The hurricane has less than a day to further intensify before it
then moves over cooler waters, which should start to weaken Elida.
In a couple of days, a faster weakening is shown than the last
advisory since the cyclone is more likely to cross over cooler
waters more quickly than previously anticipated due to the
northward track change, along with additional shear. Likewise, the
post-tropical timing is also accelerated to day 3, which is
consistent with the latest GFS/ECMWF simulated satellite data.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0300Z 20.1N 112.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 20.9N 113.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 21.9N 116.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 22.9N 118.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 23.7N 120.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 13/1200Z 24.3N 121.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 14/0000Z 25.0N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/0000Z 26.0N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake
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