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Hurricane ELIDA (Text)


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Hurricane Elida Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092020
900 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020
 
The last few visible images before sunset showed that while Elida 
had developed a faint eye, recent microwave data suggest the 
eyewall is open on the north and northwest sides. Nonetheless, the 
system is still on a strengthening trend, and the latest wind speed 
is set to 75 kt, close to the latest TAFB/SAB intensity estimates.  

Elida continues moving west-northwestward at 12 kt.  A mid-level 
ridge located over northern Mexico and the southwestern U.S. should 
steer the hurricane west-northwestward at about the same forward 
speed for another couple of days. The biggest change to report is 
that most of the guidance are showing this motion continuing 
(instead of a westward turn) or even a more poleward trend in a few 
days due to a mid-latitude trough.  It is uncertain how vertically 
deep Elida will be at that point, but there is even a low-level 
weakness in the model fields, suggesting that a shallower Elida 
would still feel that trough.  Consequentially, the new NHC 
official forecast is shifted roughly 90 n mi to the north by day 4, 
with continuity preventing a larger change.  The forecast is still 
on the southern end of the guidance envelope, so further northward 
adjustments could still be required overnight.

The hurricane has less than a day to further intensify before it 
then moves over cooler waters, which should start to weaken Elida.  
In a couple of days, a faster weakening is shown than the last 
advisory since the cyclone is more likely to cross over cooler 
waters more quickly than previously anticipated due to the 
northward track change, along with additional shear. Likewise, the 
post-tropical timing is also accelerated to day 3, which is 
consistent with the latest GFS/ECMWF simulated satellite data.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0300Z 20.1N 112.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 20.9N 113.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  12/0000Z 21.9N 116.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  12/1200Z 22.9N 118.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  13/0000Z 23.7N 120.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  13/1200Z 24.3N 121.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  14/0000Z 25.0N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  15/0000Z 26.0N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 21-Oct-2020 12:11:55 UTC