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Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020
1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020
Based on a 1128 UTC SSMIS pass, Elida appears to have developed a
well-defined low-level structure, with a clear center region
surrounded by a cyan ring in the 37-GHz channel. Dvorak
classifications from TAFB and SAB are still below tropical storm
strength, however the latest UW-CIMSS ADT up to 45 kt. Given the
improving microwave structure, I've opted to go on the higher side
of the intensity estimates, initializing the maximum wind speed at
40 kt.
The overnight tracking of Elida's center appears to have been
really good, as the recent microwave pass and first-light visible
imagery show it to be very close to where we thought it was. Elida
is moving west-northwestward, or 300/15 kt, to the south of a
mid-level ridge which extends from Texas west-southwestward across
northern Mexico and over the Pacific. This ridge should keep Elida
on a west-northwestward track for the next 3 days or so. After
that time, a weakening Elida should be steered by lower-level flow
and will begin to move more slowly toward the west on days 4 and 5.
This forecast unreasoning is unchanged from before, and since there
are no errant track models that deviate from this scenario, the new
NHC track forecast remains close to the multi-model consensus aids.
Elida's structure revealed in the recent microwave pass that the
cyclone is likely primed for continued intensification. With low
shear, sufficient ocean heat content, and plenty of mid-level
moisture, Elida is expected to strengthen to hurricane intensity
around this time tomorrow, with a peak intensity occurring in about
2 days. Given the new set of intensity guidance, the NHC forecast
has been raised during the first 2-3 days--not as high as the HCCA
model but very close to the HWRF and Florida State Superensemble.
Rapid intensification is not out of the question given Elida's
structure and environment, with the SHIPS RI guidance showing a
1-in-3 chance of a 30-kt increase over the next 24 hours. After 48
hours, Elida will begin to move over cooler waters, and increasing
southwesterly shear should cause a rather quick weakening trend.
In fact, global models show all of Elida's deep convection
dissipating--if not the entire system itself--by day 5, and the NHC
forecast calls for the cyclone to be post tropical by that time.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/1500Z 16.4N 105.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 17.3N 107.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 18.4N 109.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 19.3N 112.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 20.0N 115.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 12/0000Z 20.7N 117.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 21.2N 120.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 21.5N 124.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 21.0N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
Forecaster Berg
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