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Tropical Storm ELIDA (Text)


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Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092020
1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020
 
Based on a 1128 UTC SSMIS pass, Elida appears to have developed a 
well-defined low-level structure, with a clear center region 
surrounded by a cyan ring in the 37-GHz channel.  Dvorak 
classifications from TAFB and SAB are still below tropical storm 
strength, however the latest UW-CIMSS ADT up to 45 kt.  Given the 
improving microwave structure, I've opted to go on the higher side 
of the intensity estimates, initializing the maximum wind speed at 
40 kt.

The overnight tracking of Elida's center appears to have been 
really good, as the recent microwave pass and first-light visible 
imagery show it to be very close to where we thought it was.  Elida 
is moving west-northwestward, or 300/15 kt, to the south of a 
mid-level ridge which extends from Texas west-southwestward across 
northern Mexico and over the Pacific.  This ridge should keep Elida 
on a west-northwestward track for the next 3 days or so.  After 
that time, a weakening Elida should be steered by lower-level flow 
and will begin to move more slowly toward the west on days 4 and 5. 
This forecast unreasoning is unchanged from before, and since there 
are no errant track models that deviate from this scenario, the new 
NHC track forecast remains close to the multi-model consensus aids.

Elida's structure revealed in the recent microwave pass that the 
cyclone is likely primed for continued intensification.  With low 
shear, sufficient ocean heat content, and plenty of mid-level 
moisture, Elida is expected to strengthen to hurricane intensity 
around this time tomorrow, with a peak intensity occurring in about 
2 days.  Given the new set of intensity guidance, the NHC forecast 
has been raised during the first 2-3 days--not as high as the HCCA 
model but very close to the HWRF and Florida State Superensemble.  
Rapid intensification is not out of the question given Elida's 
structure and environment, with the SHIPS RI guidance showing a 
1-in-3 chance of a 30-kt increase over the next 24 hours.  After 48 
hours, Elida will begin to move over cooler waters, and increasing 
southwesterly shear should cause a rather quick weakening trend.  
In fact, global models show all of Elida's deep convection 
dissipating--if not the entire system itself--by day 5, and the NHC 
forecast calls for the cyclone to be post tropical by that time.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/1500Z 16.4N 105.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 17.3N 107.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 18.4N 109.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  11/0000Z 19.3N 112.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  11/1200Z 20.0N 115.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  12/0000Z 20.7N 117.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  12/1200Z 21.2N 120.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  13/1200Z 21.5N 124.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  14/1200Z 21.0N 127.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 21-Oct-2020 12:11:55 UTC