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Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020
1100 PM HST Tue Jul 21 2020
The overall appearance of Douglas has changed little over the past
several hours. Satellite images show a continuation of dry air
trying to be worked out of the eastern portion of the cyclone's
circulation. The latest satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB indicate that the initial advisory intensity remains 55 kt.
The majority of intensity guidance continues to suggest that Douglas
will soon overcome the dry air that has been holding the cyclone
back from strengthening. And, the system is forecast to remain in a
favorable environment for intensification for the next day or so.
Beyond 36 h, the combination of cooler SSTs and dry air should
cause Douglas to slowly weaken. The latest NHC forecast is a blend
of the corrected consensus HCCA and the ICON and IVCN consensus
aids. Based on this forecast, Douglas should become a hurricane
sometime on Wednesday.
Douglas is moving westward at around 13 kt. The ridge to the north
of the cyclone is forecast to become oriented east-to-west while
building westward over the next day or so. This should induce a
gradual turn to the west-northwest along with a slight increase in
forward speed. This general west-northwest motion is then forecast
to continue through the remainder of the 5-day period. The model
guidance has trended a bit faster throughout the forecast period,
and the official forecast now lies in between the clustered
consensus aids and the previous official forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0900Z 11.9N 128.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 12.0N 129.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 12.9N 132.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 14.1N 135.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 15.5N 137.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 24/1800Z 16.7N 140.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 17.8N 143.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 19.1N 149.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 19.8N 155.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
Forecaster Latto
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