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Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
800 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020
 
Cristina's convective pattern continues to rapidly erode with only 
a small patch of moderate convection remaining in the northeastern 
quadrant. Based on overnight scatterometer winds of 39 kt and the 
significant decrease in convection since that time, it is assumed 
that additional vortex spindown has occurred over 23 deg C water, 
and the initial intensity is therefore decreased to 35 kt, which is 
also supported by a blend of the latest CI-satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB.

Cristina is moving westward or 280/11 kt. There are no significant 
changes to the previous forecast track or rationale. The latest NHC 
model guidance remains tightly packed about the previous forecast 
track, with Cristina expected to continue in a general westerly 
direction until dissipation occurs in 72-96 h over the extreme 
eastern portion of the Central Pacific basin.
 
Cristina should continue to spin down as the cyclone moves over 
near 22 deg C SSTs, becoming a remnant low in about 24 hours. It is 
possible that Cristina could degenerate into an open wave sooner 
than currently forecast due to the abundance of dry, stable air 
that the cyclone will be ingesting. The new NHC intensity forecast 
is similar to the previous advisory and closely follows the IVCN 
intensity consensus model.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/1500Z 20.7N 124.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  13/0000Z 20.9N 126.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  13/1200Z 21.3N 128.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  14/0000Z 21.9N 131.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  14/1200Z 22.4N 133.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  15/0000Z 22.8N 136.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  15/1200Z 23.3N 139.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart
 
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