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Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
200 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020
Conventional satellite and scatterometer data indicate that
Cristina has weakened during the past several hours. Deep
convection has become fragmented near the center of the cyclone,
with only a small amount in the eastern semicircle. A blend of the
satellite estimates from TAFB/SAB gives an initial wind speed of 40
kt for this advisory, and this value is also quite close to a
recent scatterometer pass as well.
Cristina should gradually lose strength during the next few days
due to a combination of very cool waters and increasing shear,
along with nearby dry air. These factors will likely cause the
storm to transition into a non-convective remnant low on Monday.
The intensity forecast is lowered from the previous one, mostly due
to the decreased initial intensity, and the remnant low timing is
earlier as well.
The storm is moving a little north of due west, or 275/11. A
well-defined subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific should keep
this general motion going for the next several days. The model
guidance has changed little since the last cycle, so no significant
changes were made to the track forecast. None of the global models
hold onto the low-level circulation for long beyond 72 hours, so
dissipation is now shown by day 4.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0900Z 20.7N 123.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 20.9N 125.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 21.2N 127.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 21.6N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/0600Z 22.1N 132.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 14/1800Z 22.6N 135.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/0600Z 23.0N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake
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