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Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
200 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020
 
Conventional satellite and scatterometer data indicate that 
Cristina has weakened during the past several hours.  Deep 
convection has become fragmented near the center of the cyclone, 
with only a small amount in the eastern semicircle.  A blend of the 
satellite estimates from TAFB/SAB gives an initial wind speed of 40 
kt for this advisory, and this value is also quite close to a 
recent scatterometer pass as well.  

Cristina should gradually lose strength during the next few days 
due to a combination of very cool waters and increasing shear, 
along with nearby dry air.  These factors will likely cause the 
storm to transition into a non-convective remnant low on Monday.  
The intensity forecast is lowered from the previous one, mostly due 
to the decreased initial intensity, and the remnant low timing is 
earlier as well.
 
The storm is moving a little north of due west, or 275/11.  A 
well-defined subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific should keep 
this general motion going for the next several days.  The model 
guidance has changed little since the last cycle, so no significant 
changes were made to the track forecast.  None of the global models 
hold onto the low-level circulation for long beyond 72 hours, so 
dissipation is now shown by day 4.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/0900Z 20.7N 123.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  12/1800Z 20.9N 125.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  13/0600Z 21.2N 127.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  13/1800Z 21.6N 130.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  14/0600Z 22.1N 132.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  14/1800Z 22.6N 135.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  15/0600Z 23.0N 138.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
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