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Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
500 PM HST Sat Jul 11 2020
Cristina continues to maintain a broken ring of convection around
its center, and there has been little change in either the
organization or the various satellite intensity estimates since the
last advisory. Based on that, the initial intensity is held at 50
kt.
The initial motion is westward or 270/12. The track forecast
guidance remains in excellent agreement that Cristina should
continue generally westward through the forecast period on the south
side of the subtropical ridge. Only minor adjustments have been
made to the previous forecast track, and the new forecast is in the
middle of the tightly clustered guidance.
The cyclone is over sea surface temperatures near 23C, and the
temperatures cool along the forecast track for the next 60 h or so.
This should cause Cristina to weaken to a depression in about 48 h
and degenerate to a remnant low shortly thereafter. The latest
global models forecast the remnant low to weaken to a trough between
96-120 h, and the NHC forecast thus shows dissipation by 120 h. The
new intensity forecast is otherwise unchanged from the previous
forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0300Z 20.6N 122.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 20.8N 124.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 21.2N 126.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 21.6N 128.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 22.0N 131.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 14/1200Z 22.4N 133.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/0000Z 22.9N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/0000Z 23.5N 141.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
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