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Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
1100 AM HST Sat Jul 11 2020
Cristina's deep convection continues to decrease and is now
primarily limited to a narrow ring of thunderstorms that wraps
about 75 percent around the low-level circulation center. Although
the convective pattern resembles an embedded eye feature, the
convection is thin and becoming increasingly shallow due to cooler
waters beneath the cyclone. The initial intensity has been lowered
to 50 kt, which is above most of the satellite intensity estimates,
based on the eye-like feature and a UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate of 51
kt at 1335Z.
The initial motion remains westward or 280/12 kt. The global and
regional models are tightly packed and in excellent agreement on
Cristina maintaining this general direction and speed for the next
three days. Afterwards, the shallow cyclone is expected to turn due
west or possibly even south of west as the remnant low comes under
the influence the easterly trade wind flow. The new NHC track
forecast is a little south of the previous advisory track, mainly
due to the more southward initial position.
Cristina's forecast track will continue to take the cyclone over
progressively cooler waters for the 120-h forecast period, thus,
gradual weakening is expected. Cristina should become a depression
in about two days, followed by degeneration into a remnant low
shortly thereafter. The remnant low is expected to open up into a
trough shortly after 120 h over the Central Pacific basin, but that
could occur sooner than currently forecast. The NHC intensity
forecast is essentially just an update of the previous forecast, and
closely follows the IVCN consensus intensity guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/2100Z 20.6N 121.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 20.8N 122.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 21.1N 125.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 21.5N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 22.0N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 22.5N 132.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/1800Z 22.9N 135.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/1800Z 23.5N 140.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 16/1800Z 23.8N 145.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Stewart
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