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Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
1100 AM HST Sat Jul 11 2020
 
Cristina's deep convection continues to decrease and is now 
primarily limited to a narrow ring of thunderstorms that wraps 
about 75 percent around the low-level circulation center. Although 
the convective pattern resembles an embedded eye feature, the 
convection is thin and becoming increasingly shallow due to cooler 
waters beneath the cyclone. The initial intensity has been lowered 
to 50 kt, which is above most of the satellite intensity estimates, 
based on the eye-like feature and a UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate of 51 
kt at 1335Z.

The initial motion remains westward or 280/12 kt. The global and 
regional models are tightly packed and in excellent agreement on 
Cristina maintaining this general direction and speed for the next 
three days. Afterwards, the shallow cyclone is expected to turn due 
west or possibly even south of west as the remnant low comes under 
the influence the easterly trade wind flow. The new NHC track 
forecast is a little south of the previous advisory track, mainly 
due to the more southward initial position.
 
Cristina's forecast track will continue to take the cyclone over 
progressively cooler waters for the 120-h forecast period, thus, 
gradual weakening is expected. Cristina should become a depression 
in about two days, followed by degeneration into a remnant low 
shortly thereafter. The remnant low is expected to open up into a 
trough shortly after 120 h over the Central Pacific basin, but that 
could occur sooner than currently forecast. The NHC intensity 
forecast is essentially just an update of the previous forecast, and 
closely follows the IVCN consensus intensity guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/2100Z 20.6N 121.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  12/0600Z 20.8N 122.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  12/1800Z 21.1N 125.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  13/0600Z 21.5N 127.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  13/1800Z 22.0N 130.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  14/0600Z 22.5N 132.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  14/1800Z 22.9N 135.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  15/1800Z 23.5N 140.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  16/1800Z 23.8N 145.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart
 
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