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Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
900 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020
Cristina's appearance on satellite has not improved over the past
several hours. In fact, cloud tops are beginning to warm and some of
the convection has begun to erode over the northern portion of the
circulation. A blend of the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB support keeping the initial intensity at 60 kt. However,
this may be a little generous due to the lower values suggested by
the objective satellite intensity estimates as well as an earlier
ASCAT pass showing maximum winds of only 45 kt.
It is becoming less likely that Cristina will become a hurricane as
the storm is forecast to cross the 26 C SST isotherm later today
and move into a drier and more stable air mass. Once the cyclone
enters this unfavorable environment a weakening trend should begin.
By 72 h, Cristina is expected to become a remnant low. The NHC
intensity forecast was adjusted slightly downward in the near term,
and no longer shows Cristina reaching hurricane strength. The
remainder of the intensity forecast is similar to the previous
official forecast.
The storm is moving west-northwestward at about 12 kt. A mid-level
ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. should continue to steer
Cristina to the west-northwest through tonight. As Cristina weakens
and becomes a shallow system, a gradual turn toward the west is
expected in the low-level flow. The track models remain tightly
clustered, and only minor changes were made to the previous NHC
forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/1500Z 19.1N 114.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 19.8N 116.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 20.3N 118.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 20.6N 121.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 20.9N 124.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 13/0000Z 21.2N 126.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 21.6N 128.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/1200Z 22.5N 134.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/1200Z 22.8N 139.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Latto
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