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Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
900 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020
 
Cristina's appearance on satellite has not improved over the past 
several hours. In fact, cloud tops are beginning to warm and some of 
the convection has begun to erode over the northern portion of the 
circulation. A blend of the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB 
and SAB support keeping the initial intensity at 60 kt. However, 
this may be a little generous due to the lower values suggested by 
the objective satellite intensity estimates as well as an earlier 
ASCAT pass showing maximum winds of only 45 kt. 
 
It is becoming less likely that Cristina will become a hurricane as 
the storm is forecast to cross the 26 C SST isotherm later today 
and move into a drier and more stable air mass. Once the cyclone 
enters this unfavorable environment a weakening trend should begin. 
By 72 h, Cristina is expected to become a remnant low. The NHC 
intensity forecast was adjusted slightly downward in the near term, 
and no longer shows Cristina reaching hurricane strength. The 
remainder of the intensity forecast is similar to the previous 
official forecast.
 
The storm is moving west-northwestward at about 12 kt. A mid-level 
ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. should continue to steer 
Cristina to the west-northwest through tonight. As Cristina weakens 
and becomes a shallow system, a gradual turn toward the west is 
expected in the low-level flow.  The track models remain tightly 
clustered, and only minor changes were made to the previous NHC 
forecast.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/1500Z 19.1N 114.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  11/0000Z 19.8N 116.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  11/1200Z 20.3N 118.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  12/0000Z 20.6N 121.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  12/1200Z 20.9N 124.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  13/0000Z 21.2N 126.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  13/1200Z 21.6N 128.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  14/1200Z 22.5N 134.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  15/1200Z 22.8N 139.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 
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