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Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
900 AM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020
Cristina's convective structure has evolved into a large curved band
over the past several hours. The improving appearance has not yet
materialized in an increase in intensity, but may be indicative
that some strengthening may soon occur. The initial wind speed
estimate of 55 kt, is based on the most recent TAFB Dvorak satellite
intensity estimate.
The storm will remain in a favorable environment for intensification
for another 24 h or so. And, with the convective structure beginning
to show some improvement, it is reasonable to assume that some
strengthening is likely through tonight. After 24 h, the cyclone
will cross the 26 C isotherm and move into a progressively more
stable and dry atmospheric environment. This should result in steady
weakening. By 120 h, Cristina is expected to have lost all of its
deep convection and become a remnant low. The official forecast is
essentially an update of the previous one, indicating that Cristina
should become a hurricane by tomorrow morning and then begin to
weaken shortly thereafter.
Cristina's initial motion is west-northwest at 9 kt. A mid-level
ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. is expected to strengthen
a little over the next day or so, which should keep Cristina
on the same path but with a slight increase in forward speed. Over
the weekend, as the cyclone weakens, a gradual turn to the west is
expected. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the
previous one, and is in the middle of tightly clustered guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/1500Z 17.4N 110.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 18.2N 111.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 19.2N 113.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 20.1N 116.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 20.7N 119.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 12/0000Z 21.1N 122.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 21.2N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 21.4N 131.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 21.5N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Latto
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