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Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
900 AM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020
 
Cristina's convective structure has evolved into a large curved band 
over the past several hours. The improving appearance has not yet 
materialized in an increase in intensity, but may be indicative 
that some strengthening may soon occur.  The initial wind speed 
estimate of 55 kt, is based on the most recent TAFB Dvorak satellite 
intensity estimate. 

The storm will remain in a favorable environment for intensification 
for another 24 h or so. And, with the convective structure beginning 
to show some improvement, it is reasonable to assume that some 
strengthening is likely through tonight. After 24 h, the cyclone 
will cross the 26 C isotherm and move into a progressively more 
stable and dry atmospheric environment. This should result in steady 
weakening. By 120 h, Cristina is expected to have lost all of its 
deep convection and become a remnant low. The official forecast is 
essentially an update of the previous one, indicating that Cristina 
should become a hurricane by tomorrow morning and then begin to 
weaken shortly thereafter.
 
Cristina's initial motion is west-northwest at 9 kt. A mid-level 
ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. is expected to strengthen 
a little over the next day or so, which should keep Cristina 
on the same path but with a slight increase in forward speed. Over 
the weekend, as the cyclone weakens, a gradual turn to the west is 
expected. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the 
previous one, and is in the middle of tightly clustered guidance. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/1500Z 17.4N 110.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 18.2N 111.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 19.2N 113.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  11/0000Z 20.1N 116.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  11/1200Z 20.7N 119.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  12/0000Z 21.1N 122.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  12/1200Z 21.2N 125.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  13/1200Z 21.4N 131.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  14/1200Z 21.5N 137.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 
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