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Tropical Storm CRISTINA

Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
1000 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020
Since the previous advisory, Cristina's well-defined low-level 
center became briefly exposed for a couple of hours, likely 
resulting in a slight spin-down of the vortex. However, deep 
convection has recently redeveloped over and southwest of the 
center, so the intensity will be held at 40 kt for this advisory, 
which is a blend of TAFB and SAB subjective satellite 
classifications, and the most recent downward-trending UW-CIMSS ADT 
estimate of T2.9/43 kt.
The initial motion estimate is 300/13 kt. There is no significant 
change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. The latest NHC 
model guidance remains in excellent agreement on Cristina moving 
west-northwestward south of a nearly stationary deep-layer 
subtropical ridge for the next 5 days. The new NHC forecast track is 
a tad north of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the 
tightly packed simple and corrected consensus models.

High-resolution GOES-16 visible satellite imagery indicates that 
Cristina's center has been moving closer to the center of the 
synoptic-scale upper-level anticyclone where the vertical wind shear 
should be lower. The recent burst of deep convection near the center 
could the beginning stages of more significant strengthening owing 
to the lower shear, high mid-level humidity near 80 percent, and 
sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) near 29C. Therefore, steady 
strengthening is forecast for the next 60 h while the cyclone 
remains over warm SSTs, and a period of rapid intensification (RI) 
is still possible during the next couple of days. By 72 h and 
beyond, however, Cristina will be moving over sub-26 deg C SSTs that 
will decrease to about 22C by 120 h, with the much cooler water 
inducing steady weakening on days 4-5. The NHC intensity forecast 
is similar to the IVCN intensity guidance through 36 hours, and 
then is slightly higher than the guidance in order to maintain 
continuity with the previous intensity forecast and also due to the
possibility of RI occurring.
INIT  08/0300Z 13.8N 105.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 14.7N 106.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 15.9N 108.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 17.0N 110.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z 17.8N 112.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  10/1200Z 18.8N 114.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  11/0000Z 19.8N 116.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  12/0000Z 21.4N 121.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  13/0000Z 22.1N 127.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
Forecaster Stewart