ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042020
900 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2020
 
The circulation associated with the area of low pressure located 
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has 
become better defined over the past 24 hours, and the system has 
maintained convection for much of the past 12 hours. Although the 
convection has not been particularly well organized at times today, 
a new burst of convection developed just northeast of the low-level 
center late this afternoon and has been persistent over the past 
several hours.  Based on these observations and Dvorak T-number of 
1.5 from TAFB and 2.0 from SAB, the system is being designated as a 
30-kt tropical depression.  The system is expected to be a short- 
lived tropical cyclone as it will be moving into an area of 
increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and over SSTs of around 
24 degrees Celsius by Tuesday morning.  As a result, the depression 
is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Tuesday.  The NHC 
wind speed prediction follows the trend of the intensity guidance 
and also calls for the remnant low to dissipate in 2 to 3 days.

The depression is moving slowly northwestward around the western 
portion of a mid-level ridge that extends westward over central 
Mexico.  The cyclone should continue moving on the same general 
heading with some reduction in forward speed as it weakens and is 
steered by the weaker low-level flow.  The NHC track forecast is 
near the middle of the guidance envelope in best agreement 
with the HFIP corrected consensus model.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0300Z 20.5N 112.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 21.1N 113.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  01/0000Z 21.4N 113.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  01/1200Z 21.6N 113.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  02/0000Z 21.8N 113.8W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
NNNN