ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020
Satellite images indicate that Eta has lost most of its central
deep convection over the past several hours, with the radar center
becoming poorly defined and decreasing winds aloft noted. The last
Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission found winds to support about 50
kt, and with the continued loss of organization, the current wind
speed is lowered to 45 kt. The tropical cyclone should be making
landfall in the Cedar Key area soon.
Eta is forecast to weaken over its short passage over the Florida
peninsula later today, and over the western Atlantic tonight due to
strong shear. There has been a change in some of the guidance
showing the tropical cyclone re-gaining strength as a non-tropical
low after 24 hours due to a more favorable positioning with the
next mid-latitude trough near the Great Lakes on Friday. The
strongest solutions are seen in the UKMET and ECMWF models, which
indicate even storm-force winds are possible in a few days. I'd
rather wait one more cycle to see if this trend continues but, as a
compromise, the new forecast shows some re-strengthening as an
extratropical cyclone and reverses any former weakening trend.
The storm is moving a little faster to the northeast this morning.
Eta should accelerate even more in that direction later today as it
becomes steered by the faster middle-latitude flow. The new
forecast shows a more rapid forward speed than the previous
advisory, which is related to the ECMWF/UKMET model solutions of
Eta showing some extratropical intensification and staying
coherent, rather than shearing out as a weak low like the GFS. Eta
should merge with a large non-tropical low in 2 to 3 days.
1. There remains a danger of life-threatening storm surge along
portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from the Middle of Longboat Key
to the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay. Residents in this area
should follow any advice given by local officials.
2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in the warning area
along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast during the next few
hours, and in the warning area on the east coast later today.
3. Localized bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact
portions of the Florida Peninsula today, resulting in isolated flash
and urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas.
Minor river flooding is expected across portions of west Florida
lasting into the weekend.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0900Z 29.1N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 30.6N 81.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 32.6N 78.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 35.2N 73.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 14/0600Z 38.0N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP