Tropical Storm ETA (Text)

Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number  48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL292020
400 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020
Satellite images indicate that Eta has lost most of its central 
deep convection over the past several hours, with the radar center 
becoming poorly defined and decreasing winds aloft noted.  The last 
Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission found winds to support about 50 
kt, and with the continued loss of organization, the current wind 
speed is lowered to 45 kt.  The tropical cyclone should be making 
landfall in the Cedar Key area soon.
Eta is forecast to weaken over its short passage over the Florida 
peninsula later today, and over the western Atlantic tonight due to 
strong shear.  There has been a change in some of the guidance 
showing the tropical cyclone re-gaining strength as a non-tropical 
low after 24 hours due to a more favorable positioning with the 
next mid-latitude trough near the Great Lakes on Friday.  The 
strongest solutions are seen in the UKMET and ECMWF models, which 
indicate even storm-force winds are possible in a few days.  I'd 
rather wait one more cycle to see if this trend continues but, as a 
compromise, the new forecast shows some re-strengthening as an 
extratropical cyclone and reverses any former weakening trend.
The storm is moving a little faster to the northeast this morning. 
Eta should accelerate even more in that direction later today as it 
becomes steered by the faster middle-latitude flow.  The new 
forecast shows a more rapid forward speed than the previous 
advisory, which is related to the ECMWF/UKMET model solutions of 
Eta showing some extratropical intensification and staying 
coherent, rather than shearing out as a weak low like the GFS.  Eta 
should merge with a large non-tropical low in 2 to 3 days.
Key Messages:
1. There remains a danger of life-threatening storm surge along
portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from the Middle of Longboat Key 
to the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay. Residents in this area 
should follow any advice given by local officials.
2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in the warning area
along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast during the next few
hours, and in the warning area on the east coast later today.
3. Localized bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact 
portions of the Florida Peninsula today, resulting in isolated flash 
and urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas. 
Minor river flooding is expected across portions of west Florida 
lasting into the weekend. 
INIT  12/0900Z 29.1N  83.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  12/1800Z 30.6N  81.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  13/0600Z 32.6N  78.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  13/1800Z 35.2N  73.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  14/0600Z 38.0N  67.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED
Forecaster Blake

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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2020 12:10:49 UTC