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TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172020
1500 UTC THU SEP 10 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N  49.1W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......180NE  70SE  60SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 120SE 210SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N  49.1W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N  48.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 21.8N  50.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE  60SE  40SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 22.6N  52.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE  50SE   0SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 23.8N  54.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...110NE  50SE   0SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 25.4N  56.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE  50SE  40SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 26.9N  58.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE  60SE  40SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 28.0N  61.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE  70SE  50SW 110NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 30.0N  65.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 32.5N  65.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N  49.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 
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