ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 PM AST Tue Jul 28 2020
...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-CONDITIONS
TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning from Cabo Caucedo northward along the northern coast
of the Dominican Republic to the northern border with Haiti
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla
* Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo northward along the northern
coast to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border
Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and the
southeast and central Bahamas should monitor the progress of this
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
14.4 North, longitude 55.9 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion with
some slight reduction in forward speed is expected over the next
few days. On the forecast track, the system is forecast to move
through the Leeward Islands on Wednesday, near or over the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday night, and near or over
Hispaniola on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the
system is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or Wednesday.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
additional development and a tropical storm is forecast to form
tonight or Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
primarily to the northeast of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the Leeward
Islands late tonight or Wednesday morning and spread across the U.S.
and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday morning. These conditions are expected to reach
portions of the Dominican Republic within the warning area early
RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to
produce the following rain accumulations:
Across the northern Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin
Islands: 3 to 6 inches.
Across Puerto Rico: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
Across the Dominican Republic: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.
These rainfall amounts may lead to life threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding.
Rainfall is also expected in the following locations:
Across the Windward Islands: 1 to 3 inches.
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.