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POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092020
1500 UTC TUE JUL 28 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING
VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...MONTSERRAT...ST.
KITTS...AND NEVIS.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
GUADELOUPE...MARTINIQUE...AND ST. MARTIN. 
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. MAARTIN HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING 
FOR ST. MAARTIN.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS
* GUADELOUPE...MARTINIQUE...AND ST. MARTIN
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTIN
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD 
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. 
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N  53.7W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  90 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  20 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......200NE   0SE   0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N  53.7W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N  52.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 14.8N  56.7W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...200NE   0SE   0SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 16.0N  60.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...200NE   0SE   0SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 17.3N  64.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...200NE  60SE   0SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.8N  67.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...210NE  90SE   0SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 20.1N  70.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...210NE  90SE   0SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 21.3N  73.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...210NE  90SE   0SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 24.1N  77.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 26.8N  80.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N  53.7W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 28/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
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