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Post-Tropical Cyclone Akoni Discussion Number 10
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122019
500 AM HST Fri Sep 06 2019
Although showers and thunderstorms continue to pulse near Akoni's
elongated low-level circulation center (LLCC), they have not
been sufficiently persistent or organized to continue to classify
the system as a tropical cyclone, and Akoni is being downgraded to
a post-tropical remnant low. An overnight ASCAT-C pass showed
southerly winds to 30 kt in an area east of the center, and that
will be the initial intensity for this advisory.
The initial motion estimate is a very uncertain 270/14 kt, as it
appears that the LLCC has re-formed west of its previous location.
A low- to mid-level ridge will strengthen far north of the remnant
low over the next couple of days, and the associated gradient
will likely support 30 kt winds in the northern semicircle. The
high will also drive the system toward the west to west-northwest,
with an increase in forward speed expected over the weekend. Little
change in strength is expected until the system encounters increased
vertical wind shear toward the latter part of the forecast period.
This is expected to cause the low to weaken and open into a trough
by day 4 or 5, similar to the solutions presented by GFS and ECMWF
guidance.
This is the last advisory issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center on this system, unless regeneration occurs. For additional
information on the remnant low, please see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service Honolulu, under AWIPS header
HFOHSFNP, WMO header FZPN40 PHFO, and available on the Web at
weather.gov/hfo/HSFNP.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/1500Z 11.2N 149.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 07/0000Z 11.2N 151.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 07/1200Z 11.4N 153.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 08/0000Z 12.0N 156.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/1200Z 12.9N 159.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/1200Z 15.0N 166.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/1200Z 17.0N 172.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Birchard
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