ZCZC HFOTCDCP3 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Post-Tropical Cyclone Akoni Discussion Number 10 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122019 500 AM HST Fri Sep 06 2019 Although showers and thunderstorms continue to pulse near Akoni's elongated low-level circulation center (LLCC), they have not been sufficiently persistent or organized to continue to classify the system as a tropical cyclone, and Akoni is being downgraded to a post-tropical remnant low. An overnight ASCAT-C pass showed southerly winds to 30 kt in an area east of the center, and that will be the initial intensity for this advisory. The initial motion estimate is a very uncertain 270/14 kt, as it appears that the LLCC has re-formed west of its previous location. A low- to mid-level ridge will strengthen far north of the remnant low over the next couple of days, and the associated gradient will likely support 30 kt winds in the northern semicircle. The high will also drive the system toward the west to west-northwest, with an increase in forward speed expected over the weekend. Little change in strength is expected until the system encounters increased vertical wind shear toward the latter part of the forecast period. This is expected to cause the low to weaken and open into a trough by day 4 or 5, similar to the solutions presented by GFS and ECMWF guidance. This is the last advisory issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center on this system, unless regeneration occurs. For additional information on the remnant low, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service Honolulu, under AWIPS header HFOHSFNP, WMO header FZPN40 PHFO, and available on the Web at weather.gov/hfo/HSFNP. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 11.2N 149.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 07/0000Z 11.2N 151.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/1200Z 11.4N 153.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/0000Z 12.0N 156.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/1200Z 12.9N 159.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/1200Z 15.0N 166.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/1200Z 17.0N 172.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Birchard NNNN
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