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Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number  21...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
1100 PM HST Thu Sep 05 2019

Corrected motion in third paragraph.

This evening's satellite presentation is showing a considerable
amount of deterioration of Juliette's inner core.  The eastern
portion of the eyewall has eroded, cloud tops have continue to
warm, and it appears as though some drier mid-level air is
intruding from the northwest.  Subjective satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the UW-CIMSS Objective T-number
supports lowering the initial intensity to 70 kt.

Although the upper-level winds are expected to remain in a favorable
pattern during the next couple days, the hurricane will be moving
over decreasing sea surface temperatures and into increasingly
stable thermodynamic conditions.  Subsequently, gradual weakening
should continue through the entire forecast period, and Juliette is
expected to become a remnant low in 3 days, or less.  The intensity
forecast is basically a compromise of the NOAA HFIP HCCA and the
global models beyond the 48-hour period.

The initial motion continues to be northwestward, or 305/9 kt.  A
mid-level ridge extending from the southwestern United States over
the eastern Pacific should induce a west-northwestward turn on
Friday, and this general motion should continue through the next
couple of days.  Toward the end of the period, a westward motion
should commence as Juliette degenerates into a vertically shallow
depression, and eventually, a remnant low, and becomes steered by
the low-level tradewind flow.  The track forecast is an update of
the previous advisory and sides with the TVCE model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0900Z 22.4N 122.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 23.0N 124.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 23.6N 126.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  07/1800Z 23.8N 128.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  08/0600Z 23.8N 130.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  09/0600Z 23.4N 135.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  10/0600Z 23.4N 138.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  11/0600Z 23.8N 141.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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