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Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019
900 PM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019
Enhanced BD-curve infrared GOES-17 imagery shows that Juliette is
undergoing a rapid intensification evolution. An earlier GMI
microwave pass revealed that the eyewall has completed closed off,
and this is also visible in the infrared images as a -70C black
ring. A blend of the subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates yield 80 kt, but since that time, due to the much improved
inner core now depicted in imagery, the initial intensity is raised
to 100 kt.
Rapid strengthening should continue during the next 12 hours or so.
Beyond the short term intensification trend, Juliette is forecast to
continue to move within a favorable atmosphere consisting of low
deep-layer shear, a diffluent upper wind pattern, and warm oceanic
temperatures which should allow Juliette to strengthen a bit
further. Afterward, a steady weakening trend is forecast as
Juliette traverses cooler water and moves into a more stable, drier
marine layer air mass.
Juliette's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or
310/9 kt. The cyclone should continue moving generally
northwestward, or west-northwestward within the mid-tropospheric
steering flow produced by a subtropical ridge to the north of
Juliette, and an upper-level low just to the west-southwest.
There's still quite a bit of across-track model spread beyond the 48
hour period in response to continued large-scale synoptic
dissimilarities in the strength of the subtropical ridge. The NHC
track forecast is similar to the previous one, and is close to the
TVCE consensus model.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0300Z 17.8N 114.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 18.4N 115.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 18.9N 116.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 19.4N 117.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 19.9N 119.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 21.4N 123.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 23.0N 127.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 24.1N 131.3W 35 KT 40 MPH