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Tropical Depression Ivo Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102019
800 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019

Ivo is moving north-northwestward or 340/10 kt, and that motion is
forecast to continue today. A turn to the north with a gradual
decrease in forward speed is still expected to occur on Monday, and
that motion should continue into Tuesday. The new NHC track forecast
is similar to the previous advisory track and lies close a blend of
the consensus models HCCA, TVCN, and TVCX.

The initial intensity of 25 kt is based on earlier ASCAT surface
wind data. Although a small area of deep convection has redeveloped
about 100 n mi north of the low-level center, that thunderstorm
activity is too far away to provide any positive feedback onto the
circulation. Thus, Ivo basically remains devoid of any significant
organized convection, and this downward trend is expected to
continue for the next 48 hours while the cyclone moves of waters
cooler than 22C. As a result of the expected spin down of the
shallow vortex, Ivo is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant
low later today and dissipate by Tuesday.

Although Ivo is weakening, significant swells generated by the
cyclone are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula and southern California.  These swells are
likely to continue through the day and could cause rip currents,
and gradually subside on Monday. See products from your local
weather office for additional information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/1500Z 25.5N 117.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 26.7N 118.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  26/1200Z 27.5N 118.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  27/0000Z 28.3N 118.1W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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