ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Ivo Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Ivo is moving north-northwestward or 340/10 kt, and that motion is forecast to continue today. A turn to the north with a gradual decrease in forward speed is still expected to occur on Monday, and that motion should continue into Tuesday. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track and lies close a blend of the consensus models HCCA, TVCN, and TVCX. The initial intensity of 25 kt is based on earlier ASCAT surface wind data. Although a small area of deep convection has redeveloped about 100 n mi north of the low-level center, that thunderstorm activity is too far away to provide any positive feedback onto the circulation. Thus, Ivo basically remains devoid of any significant organized convection, and this downward trend is expected to continue for the next 48 hours while the cyclone moves of waters cooler than 22C. As a result of the expected spin down of the shallow vortex, Ivo is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low later today and dissipate by Tuesday. Although Ivo is weakening, significant swells generated by the cyclone are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and southern California. These swells are likely to continue through the day and could cause rip currents, and gradually subside on Monday. See products from your local weather office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 25.5N 117.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 26.7N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/1200Z 27.5N 118.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/0000Z 28.3N 118.1W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 31-Dec-2019 12:09:57 UTC