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Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102019
800 AM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Ivo has been passing over the island of Clarion Mexico over the past
few hours, with an notable wind shift occuring there at around 1030
UTC as the center moved north of the island. The latest observation
from Clarion at 1245 UTC measured sustained winds of 40 kt with
gusts to 46 kt. An earlier scatterometer pass showed that 50 kt
winds are occurring in the southeastern quadrant of the cyclone.
As the satellite appearance of the cyclone has not degraded since
that time, the initial intensity of Ivo remains at 50 kt for this
advisory.

Ivo is moving NNW or 330/9 kt. This general motion is expected to
continue through the next 48 hours as the cyclone is steered around
a mid level ridge over northern Mexico. A slight decrease in forward
speed is expected beyond 48 hours as Ivo weakens and becomes a
shallow system. All forecast models agree with this scenario, and
the official forecast is near the corrected consensus HCCA.

Northeasterly shear continues to impact the storm which is resulting
the convection being confined to the southwestern semicircle. The
SHIPS guidance indicates this shear should abate over the next 12-24
hours. However, by that time Ivo will be moving over marginal water
temperatures and into a slightly drier environment which should
cause the system to slowly weaken. In about 24 hours the cyclone
will pass over the 26 C isotherm, and by 48 hours it will be over
waters of about 22 C and in a stable airmass. This should cause the
cyclone to lose its deep convection and become a remnant low by 72
hours. The official forecast is similar to the previous one, and
close to the solution of the various consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 18.8N 115.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 20.0N 115.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 21.6N 116.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 23.1N 117.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  25/1200Z 24.6N 117.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  26/1200Z 27.6N 118.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Beven

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